In September 2026, the average Marin home sold for about 4.6% more than the average list price. A year earlier, the two averages were almost identical. Over the same month, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.86%, up from 6.35% a year before, and home sales across California fell. If you are planning a Marin offer around the statewide headline that things are cooling, you are planning for a different county.
The reason Marin went the other way has a simple mechanism behind it. Over the summer, buyers bought homes faster than they had a year earlier. Then in September, sellers listed noticeably fewer homes than they had the previous September. Going into the slower months, Marin has much less on the market than it did a year ago, and most of the speed sits in a few specific towns.
The Statewide Story Marin Didn't Follow
The California Association of Realtors' September 2026 report, released October 19, describes a softening state. Existing single-family sales fell 6.5% from September 2025. Statewide active listings rose 0.5% year over year, the first annual increase in eight months. The unsold inventory index held at 3.7 months.
C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski summed up the state's mood in that release: "As we move into fall, the market feels a little less rushed, giving buyers more time to carefully consider their options."
The same report shows Marin heading the other direction on nearly every supply measure. Marin's active listings fell 32.1% from September 2025, the steepest decline of any county C.A.R. tracks. Marin's unsold inventory index was 2.2 months, down from 2.7 in August and 3.4 a year earlier. Sales of existing single-family homes in Marin rose 11.1% year over year and 26.9% from August, with a median price of $1,678,750 for September 2026, up 1.7% from a year earlier.
A smaller pool of homes, more sales, and a faster pace all appeared at once, and that combination says more than any one of those numbers alone.
Summer Buyers Emptied the Shelf
A drop in inventory can happen in two ways. Sellers can stop listing, or buyers can take homes off the market faster than they arrive. The monthly reports from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, the MLS that covers Marin, show that the summer was mostly the second.
In July 2026, Marin recorded 203 new residential listings and 233 closed sales. In July 2025, the figures were 214 and 190. Listings dipped slightly while closings rose by more than a fifth.
August is the most revealing month. Sellers listed more homes than a year earlier, 293 new residential listings against 250 in August 2025. Closings climbed too. BAREIS's updated count, published in October, shows 194 residential sales in August 2026 against 164 in August 2025. Even in the one summer month when sellers brought more homes to market, buyers kept up.
Across July through September, new residential listings totaled 837 in 2026 against 863 in 2025, a decline of about 3%. That modest dip is not enough by itself to explain a 32% drop in active listings. Faster absorption is what closes the gap.
September's Listings Didn't Refill It
September is when supply turned. Marin recorded 341 new residential listings in September 2026, down from 399 in September 2025, a decline of roughly 14.5%.
C.A.R. Chief Economist Jordan Levine explained the statewide version of this pattern in the same release:
"On the supply side, the mortgage rate lock-in effect continues to constrain new listings, while limited inventory is helping to cushion home prices against weaker demand."
In most counties, that lock-in effect is now competing with slower sales, which is why statewide inventory edged up. In Marin, the summer had already used up the existing supply before new listings slowed, so September started with a short list of homes and added fewer to it.
The price and pace numbers reflect that. BAREIS's report dated October 7, 2026 shows these September figures for Marin residential sales:
- Median days on market: 18, down from 28 in September 2025
- Average days on market: 39, down from 52
- Median sold price: $1,450,000, up from $1,417,500
- Average list price compared with average sold price: $1,738,192 listed and $1,817,381 sold, against $1,815,369 and $1,815,962 a year earlier
The 4.6% figure in the opening comes from dividing those two September averages. It is a ratio of averages, not a home-by-home sale-to-list ratio. Even so, the shift from essentially even to well above list in twelve months is clear.
The First Monthly Count Runs Low
Anyone tracking Marin month by month will run into one quirk in the source data. BAREIS publishes a summary shortly after each month ends, and later reports revise that count upward as late closings come in.
BAREIS's first September 2025 summary, dated October 10, 2025, showed 185 residential closings. The October 2026 two-month report puts September 2025 at 200. August 2026 started at 184 closings and now stands at 194.
So September 2026's 198 closings, which look flat against the revised 200 for September 2025, will probably grow once late reports arrive. This matters if you are a seller judging the market from the first headline in October. The first count of any month understates activity, and the strongest evidence of demand this year shows up after the revisions.
Where the Speed Actually Is
A countywide average of 39 days on market hides a wide spread. BAREIS's September 2026 report by area gives average sale price and average days on market for each Marin community. These are averages, and several towns closed only a handful of sales.
| Area | Residential sales, Sept. 2026 | Average sale price | Average days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larkspur | 7 | $2,830,929 | 15 |
| Mill Valley | 20 | $2,161,200 | 17 |
| Kentfield | 3 | $3,033,333 | 26 |
| Belvedere | 2 | $4,750,000 | 27 |
| Corte Madera | 10 | $1,796,000 | 35 |
| San Anselmo | 17 | $1,884,861 | 35 |
| San Rafael | 52 | $1,541,113 | 41 |
| Ross | 2 | $3,722,500 | 42 |
| Novato | 49 | $1,104,480 | 45 |
| Fairfax | 3 | $1,190,667 | 118 |
San Rafael and Novato together accounted for 101 of Marin's 198 residential closings in September, and both averaged more days on market than the county as a whole. Mill Valley and Larkspur, at much higher average prices, sold in roughly half the county average. The fastest homes in Marin this fall were mostly not the least expensive ones.
That has practical consequences on both sides of a sale. A buyer focused on Mill Valley or Larkspur is shopping where homes sold in about two weeks on average in September. That buyer should expect little time to decide and should be ready with financing before touring. A buyer looking in San Rafael or Novato has more time on average, though not the kind of slack the statewide headlines suggest. Sellers can use the same table in reverse. A pricing approach built on Mill Valley's pace will not carry over unchanged to Novato.
What to Watch Before Year-End
The supply gap is the number to watch through November and December. These are the signals that would show whether it is widening or closing:
- New listings compared with the same month last year. September's 14.5% drop is what tightened the shelf. A return to year-earlier listing levels would ease pressure faster than any change in rates.
- Revised closing counts. Compare BAREIS's later two-month reports, not the first monthly summaries, against prior years.
- Unsold inventory in C.A.R.'s next release. Marin's 2.2 months in September compares with 1.6 months in San Francisco, down from 2.0 a year earlier, and 3.7 months statewide. Movement in either Bay Area county will show whether the tight supply is spreading or easing.
- Mortgage rates. C.A.R. noted rates have risen sharply since late August. Marin's pace held through that rise in September, and October's data will show whether it lasted.
Questions Buyers and Sellers Are Asking This Fall
Why does C.A.R. show Marin homes taking 56.5 days while BAREIS shows 18? C.A.R.'s Marin figure covers existing single-family homes only. BAREIS's residential series also includes condos, co-ops, and floating homes. The two come from different property sets and are built differently, so it is best to track each against its own history rather than against each other.
Are October 2026 numbers available yet? September 2026 is the latest complete month in both the BAREIS and C.A.R. data. October figures will arrive in early to mid November.
Does a falling inventory count mean fewer people are selling? Partly. September new listings were down about 14.5% from a year earlier. But summer listings were close to 2025 levels while closings rose, so much of the drop comes from homes selling faster.
If you are weighing a sale this fall, the useful question is how quickly homes like yours are selling in your town right now, not how fast "Marin" is selling. Aviva Kamler can show you your town's September pace next to your home's likely value, so you can time and price your listing against the real supply. Request a Personalized Home Valuation.
